00:00:20: and welcome to the Trans-Atlanticist at The American Center in Hamburg.

00:00:24: I'm your host Andrew Sola, And today we're going talk about elections that took place over Europe for several weeks.

00:00:32: We are recording on the first of October and things might have changed as we listen because a lot of these elections did not result immediately in government formation.

00:00:46: What they involve is complex coalition negotiations, so we'll kind of preview those now as well.

00:00:54: My guest today.

00:00:55: As always to discuss European politics Is our expert dr?

00:00:59: Gunther Donner who was a longtime lobbyist and consultant at the European Union in Brussels Now retired.

00:01:06: Welcome Gunter.

00:01:07: how's it going?

00:01:08: oh quite Well yeah well not so politically

00:01:11: Not so political.

00:01:13: get into that

00:01:14: not at all.

00:01:15: So today on our agenda, we have the parliamentary elections in Sweden.

00:01:20: Then the recent referendum in Switzerland on neutrality and then three state elections in Germany first in Sachsen-Anhalt a couple of weeks ago And then the elections in Mecklenburg for Pomeranen and Berlin which are State Elections.

00:01:37: in Berlin is a city as well as estate.

00:01:40: But we're going to get started today in Sweden, and this was on the thirteenth of September.

00:01:46: And this is interesting because Sweden basically operates according a coalition parliamentary system All these sort left parties when put together which form their right or left coalitions.

00:02:02: they were only separated by like a couple tenths percentage point parliamentary coalition negotiations.

00:02:12: now, it looks like the center-left leading left coalition has three more seats in the Swedish parliament and the Reichstag than the right coalition headed by the moderates.

00:02:28: So this left leaning majority is led by social democrat Magdalene Andersson who was the previous prime minister of Sweden before Wolf Kristursson, who just resigned.

00:02:41: He was the head of The Moderate Party and it looks like he is lost.

00:02:45: so what are your big takeaways from this election?

00:02:50: Well Swedish society tends to vote for a change after four years.

00:02:57: that's not uncommon if you go through in the past knowing Decades ago, the social democrats were by far dominating part.

00:03:10: Which is no longer the case though.

00:03:12: they came out first again with Marc-Dalina Andersson

00:03:17: And first with twenty eight percent of votes as opposed to the moderate party, which had at nineteen point eight five percent of them.

00:03:26: Yes I mean let's face it The one in responsibility always is held responsible for whatever people made this like.

00:03:37: Generally speaking Sweden recuperated from a more or less problematic economic situation and improved A few statistical data may lead you to think differently, namely unemployment.

00:03:56: But those unemployed now are the ones streaming into the country without any knowledge or skill and even no language skills whatsoever.

00:04:08: during years before the present government And that is quite interesting The present government reduced migration considerably.

00:04:17: Migration is to Fulton, Sweden as everybody were here in Europe.

00:04:22: It's migration into the working space or an occupation which is okay and which is gladly welcome Or it's a migration of the generous welfare state directly Normally without away out because these individuals enter the wealth estate And they remain there forever.

00:04:43: Kuntur, you started by saying that the Swedes often change from right to left or left-to-right because they're disappointed about whoever is in power.

00:04:55: But it seems that everyone is happy with the job That the moderates did.

00:05:00: and what?

00:05:01: The help of other right anti-immigrant parties, And really cracking down on asylum seeking stuff.

00:05:07: So What exactly are people angry about in Sweden?

00:05:10: if the immigration problem Is mostly solved why would they change then to a center left coalition?

00:05:17: There were two challenges major changes at.

00:05:19: the one I would like to start with is that for the first time, managed to make the Sveria Democratic, the extreme right party lose votes.

00:05:33: That's

00:05:34: all.

00:05:35: I'm just going to stop here and then you can continue.

00:05:37: so we haven't mentioned them yet.

00:05:38: The Spheria Democrats are a Party that has often been compared with the AfD in Germany or Fratelli D'Italia in Italy, also the Front National in France Vox in Spain, that's who they're compared to whether or not we agree with that comparison.

00:05:56: Everything you read, ninety-eight percent of what you read about the Surrey Democrat is there put into the same basket as all these right parties?

00:06:05: We can dispute that.

00:06:07: but So Ulf Christensen was the head of The Moderates who has now resigned and he you know Magdalena Andersen Has the opportunity Now to form a center-left government.

00:06:20: No, she's just given back that She gave up

00:06:23: okay?

00:06:23: so we're still in negotiations.

00:06:25: But now I want to get Back To what the point You wanted to make about this very Democrat Who were A significant part Of the Center Right Voting Block In Ulf Kristessons parliament.

00:06:40: Well,

00:06:41: the two camps need some illustration because they are more or less responsible for the fact that both Mrs Anderson couldn't find a majority in Parliament and as things go there quite slowly Christensen may now have a chance to try his luck which isn't much better.

00:07:02: let me add this before going into details.

00:07:06: The thing is at The left camp, so-called Left Camp is the Social Democrats.

00:07:12: The Communists they call themselves Venster Partied... ...the environmentalist Milieu Partied and a would be Liberal Party which isn't liberal in the American sense of the word not at all.

00:07:28: it's liberal.

00:07:30: I think they don't really... there is a liberal party.

00:07:32: We would call them something like libertarian, and they want smaller government in lower taxes?

00:07:37: Yeah more or less They're called centipetites Centrists i shouldn't call them but again that Is the left.

00:07:47: Kemp That's called it like this on The right side you have the model artena which is chris disons party.

00:07:53: You Have The liberal party which managed to hop over the four percent a block Contrary, too.

00:08:03: To whatever publications before

00:08:06: you need for percent of the vote to enter the parlor You

00:08:09: do.

00:08:09: it's five percent in Germany and we'll get to that later.

00:08:12: It's five fin germany yes But they are the Liberal Party who call themselves the Liberal party.

00:08:19: if I manage to do so then They have the Christian Democrats And the fourth party in the camp used to be the Sverde Democrat.

00:08:30: In past government they just supported the government, which was a minority government that could live with support for important votes and parliament budgets or whatever relying on the support of the Sverde Democrat.

00:08:48: but now They were so strong and in many places, especially Sweden those better off.

00:08:56: they are the first party.

00:08:58: So my commune or our holiday houses have more than thirty percent of them now expected to be given a cabinet post And that caused problems.

00:09:14: these two camps rivalized very close.

00:09:18: exactly.

00:09:20: The thing is now that within the left camp, the centipede hates the communists because they proved to be extremely radical and anti-Semitic.

00:09:32: A new type of venstipede has come with a new leader.

00:09:38: So the centhipede refuses cooperation in its present shape.

00:09:43: so if Mrs Anderson has no majority she tried for a couple of days and then she gave the job back to the president, who is responsible for arranging these negotiations.

00:09:57: Now comes Christuson!

00:09:59: And he has another problem that will never vote for him because he cooperates with the sveri-democrat.

00:10:09: whether or not.

00:10:10: now if you hop over say it's better have prime minister A new compromise will come out of it.

00:10:18: that AUKUS on the boss of the Swedish democracy says, well I don't need to sit in the cabinet as long as you need my votes for the budget.

00:10:26: It remains to be seen.

00:10:28: basically The thing about Sweden is you don't actually need a Parliamentary majority To govern and you can have a minority.

00:10:39: You could but of course certain things we have to get through And that's the budget right.

00:10:44: without a budget your finished

00:10:47: But you don't have to have an official majority.

00:10:49: when I put together the seats and say this party, this party.

00:10:52: And in this party altogether we have one seat majority.

00:10:55: it can happen...

00:10:58: Denmark wouldn't be governed or shouldn't have been governed for the last decade?

00:11:02: Their minority governments with arrangements are quite common.

00:11:06: absolutely the other way around is Germany where its incomprehensible that couldn't happen.

00:11:12: So, I mean Sweden.

00:11:13: Sweden politics as we can see by the sort of left and right groupings Are so close.

00:11:20: a couple tenths of a percentage point divides them.

00:11:23: So basically they're forced into compromise in something like consensus Politics.

00:11:28: but just to delve a little bit deeper And some of the things you said is i'm looking at the stats here You know this faria democratan again often compared to the afd in germany or the far-right parties in spain italy and france lost eleven seats.

00:11:45: For

00:11:47: the first time after a history of one win,

00:11:50: which indicates to me that at least in Sweden the anti-immigration feeling has basically been taken up by all the parties and then that's going to reduce some.

00:12:04: The other thing I want to note is this, much like in Sachsen-Anhalt which we'll discuss next.

00:12:15: Which has the fewest number of immigrants and foreigners In that state of Germany... ...the place.

00:12:22: you were talking about Sodershiping County.. ..which had a double amount of votes for the Spheria Democrat.

00:12:31: Thirty percent!

00:12:31: The national average was seventeen and half percent.

00:12:36: But again when look Much like in Zaksen-Anhalt, when you look at the percentage of immigrants there it's a tenth of what they have in the rest of the country.

00:12:44: What we're seeing here is oftentimes these right wing parties get support from places mostly rural places that have the fewest immigrants which are curious.

00:12:55: You would expect more people to vote for this very Democrat and where there are lots of immigrants but its quite the opposite.

00:13:01: anyway good turn.

00:13:03: Well I would like a word of caution with all these right parties, there are extreme right-wing parties in Europe now tend to give a of.

00:13:13: basically you can throw them all into one pot and say well this is pure rat poison but it's probably it might fall short of reality.

00:13:24: we have to face the fact that tens of thousands hundreds or thousands of people vote for these parties or whatever.

00:13:31: And these people!

00:13:32: That is quite important used to vote for totally different parties.

00:13:36: The Social Democrats in Germany lost hundreds, thousands of votes through the AFD and a person voting for a socialist party hopping over devoting for a right-wing or neo-Nazi one fascist party however you call them.

00:13:52: that is basic shift And that to me allows two explanations.

00:13:58: One they vote out of rage and they don't think about what these people want to do or propose, all the are lured into voting for them by generous promises.

00:14:10: I let it rain crew grounds for you!

00:14:12: And vote for me?

00:14:13: You'll be rich... Or whatever you wish too.

00:14:19: How could you vote for a socialist party once and then hop over by the hundreds of thousands to a party promising?

00:14:27: The problem with democracy is that well, the process might be nice.

00:14:32: The results are often disastrous.

00:14:35: Anyway my analysis is much simpler And so of course I'm going to agree with my own.

00:14:42: Yeah, I think since all major parties have basically co-opted anti immigration To some extent i think what we're seeing is that?

00:14:51: Some of these people who were voting for far right parties because a protest voting or whatever Are basically coming back too voting for some sort of centrist parties.

00:15:02: And we'll see if that's the norm in the long term as we get into next year's European elections, which will also give us a greater sign of what's happening.

00:15:11: That

00:15:12: would be with very far right much more strenuous.

00:15:15: I believe so.

00:15:16: but let me add one thing

00:15:18: yeah just your final point.

00:15:19: and then my

00:15:20: final Sweden Point is Christus on won though being in power moderately But he didn't lose What?

00:15:27: He did his The main topic of the sverio-democrato, which is immigration into the welfare state and the resulting overconsumption there forevermore.

00:15:41: He reduced this in importance to people.

00:15:43: at the same time he did two other things.

00:15:47: Sweden has the lowest fuel prices now among European states.

00:15:53: for decades when I first gained that it was the most expensive.

00:15:57: So, he lowered fuel prices.

00:15:59: He lowered food prices and reduced the importance of illegal immigration issue.

00:16:08: so that was probably much of these subjects would have instrumentalized for a win if they couldn't.

00:16:22: If we look at it this way... as you're suggesting, when you say the moderates and Ulf Christerson won.

00:16:29: He did actually gain nearly one percentage point more which means he got two more seats in parliament.

00:16:35: so it's not like this great wipeout of the centrist people basically slightly approve him a little bit more Not radically though all right.

00:16:46: So we move on to Switzerland.

00:16:47: curiously enough Participation in the Swedish parliamentary elections was eighty-five percent, which is a big turnout and interesting.

00:16:59: And we'll just compare that to the turn out of The Swiss Referendum —which was only forty seven percent— Which indicates to me...

00:17:06: ...which it's not low I have to add.

00:17:09: Think about it…Swiss people normally are called to vote for on whatever at the Canton level or community level every four weeks.

00:17:20: But turnout is still a good sign of how important an issue more firmly in Swiss law.

00:17:45: The second one had to do with more sustainable food production was a Sustainable Food Initiative, which was also knocked down by seventy percent to thirty percent.

00:17:56: so For me what's interesting about this is how did they even get to a referendum?

00:18:02: Surely any poll would indicate that what the neutrality thing Was offering or demanding was totally unpopular.

00:18:11: And that makes me think, of course about Sweden as well in a certain respect.

00:18:16: Sweden was always in theory neutral but the neutrality was a fiction.

00:18:21: Sweden is always aligned with Western Europe and NATO even though never fully a member of NATO.

00:18:28: until a couple years ago I would argue similarly Switzerland might be formally neutral But practically speaking they're not.

00:18:39: Let's start with the main character who conceived this whole thing, that is Heblokha.

00:18:45: Hebloko is a very old gentleman and he was one of the richest people in Switzerland which means a lot And he hates Europe.

00:18:54: The European Union Is his nightmare!

00:18:58: Another nightmare that befell him... His daughter is probably more or less running his party Which quite strong instance.

00:19:07: Why don't you describe your party?

00:19:10: Arch-conservative, they have their centre in the German speaking parts of Switzerland.

00:19:16: They are there and other parts as well but much less effective.

00:19:21: The German speaking part is most populated.

00:19:25: His daughter and his family used to run the show.

00:19:28: Of course he pays for it.

00:19:30: He's a multi-billionaire.

00:19:32: He's very old And he clings to stone-old visions of Swiss neutrality stemming from battles the Swiss lost five hundred years ago.

00:19:46: I went to school in Switzerland as a teenager, i was confronted with quite a lot of how life history is.

00:19:53: historic events are five hundred year ago.

00:19:56: nobody would care.

00:19:57: no one know anything about that in Germany but in switzerland.

00:20:00: it's extremely important and he hates the european union.

00:20:05: The rest is more or less, it's not that he's pro-Putin.

00:20:09: I don't think He would take Putin some money on top of his parole play but many others do so as well.

00:20:16: .He wants to throw in barriers against a softening up of this.

00:20:23: the Swiss keep themselves away from everything which Is no longer possible.

00:20:29: It's No longer possible In economic terms.

00:20:31: your country showed it To the world.

00:20:33: You twice forced them to hop over their own barriers.

00:20:37: Yeah, they had to give back the Nazi gold and you cracked that banking secret just by threatening them with expulsion from the American market.

00:20:46: That was it period.

00:20:48: Then couple of months or half a year ago The Swiss head-of state which is very complicated thing requiring much explanation because I have no power They are just circulating around went America because they were threatened with taxation separately.

00:21:06: And it's a different thing if the US threatens small Switzerland, with taxation on whatever pharmaceutical products or The European Union could reply in kind for all that but not Swiss Switzerland.

00:21:22: So I talked to many Swiss friends of them.

00:21:26: That was first thing.

00:21:28: some swiss might think oh where are we members?

00:21:32: We would be treated in a different fashion, but this to block I was of course hell on earth.

00:21:38: But is Blocker living an effective universe?

00:21:41: Does he actually think that Switzerland is neutral when clearly they're not and haven't been for a long time just like Sweden?

00:21:50: what i'm trying to say is signing a formal document.

00:21:53: joining NATO as sweden did clearly was a formal expression of their non-neutrality Before they joined NATO would be like there clearly Western aligned and I remember actually before They join NATO running into a group of Swedish soldiers at the NATO base in Germany.

00:22:14: Switzerland also has such Just not only geographical but economic connections with the West sure.

00:22:22: They can launder money for the Russians or whomever whatever way, they can.

00:22:26: But practically speaking while their formally neutral informally.

00:22:33: Well, the whole thing of neutrality deserves a closer look at.

00:22:38: There is huge difference between the Swedish historic understanding of neutrility and the Swiss.

00:22:44: The Swedish had to do with rebuilding the Swedish state because once ruling class in Sweden was very much pro-Prussia and pro-Germany.

00:22:55: they were on their brink if joining the First World War or side of Germany which we stopped politically.

00:23:01: And then in the twenties, thirties.

00:23:03: The left-wing move came and there was more democracy and more whatever.

00:23:09: In Switzerland it's as I said its stone old.

00:23:12: we keep our hands away from It.

00:23:14: after the Battle of Malignano that was in fifteen.

00:23:17: fifteen Where tens or thousands of Swiss soldiers died for nothing?

00:23:21: For the idea if a swiss great power which they were at the end of the fifteenth century that the greatest power, they won one battle after another.

00:23:31: That was for about seventy years.

00:23:32: then it was over.

00:23:34: Those two understandings of neutrality are different and for Hablocher his threat is the European Union And the idea that Switzerland might slip into it.

00:23:46: There were many contracts or negotiations with the EU So now a Swiss person can work here just like a French.

00:23:55: more or less vice versa, special treaties have been signed much to the advantage of the Swiss.

00:24:05: But I think he wanted re-enter politics with this and reshape it according his very old fashioned trading which is shared by quite a few.

00:24:22: But I think maybe the pragmatic part of Switzerland simply realizes this is strange.

00:24:31: There's no reason to formalize something that has already formal, which is their neutrality and they'll continue to live in the fiction that there sort of formally and informally neutral although they're only formerly neutral.

00:24:46: Yeah, neutrality is I don't care who wins.

00:24:51: Neither the Swiss nor the Swedes ever were pro Stalin or pro Putin.

00:24:56: The swiss had a history of making very, very awkward and very horrible deals with the Nazis as long as you let them And the Sweds have Very soft arrangements for the Nazis but that stopped after Stalingrad.

00:25:12: So the Swedish joining the NATO stems clearly from a feeling of being threatened which is not the case in Switzerland.

00:25:21: That's too far away from the Russian border and the Baltic

00:25:24: states.".

00:25:25: Okay, good we're going to move now to the elections in Zaksan-Anhalt which were on the sixth of September...

00:25:32: What a lovely topic!

00:25:33: ...what interesting about this.

00:25:35: there are many points The first though I would say is that the participation....the turnout went up a tonne From sixty percent in two thousand twenty one to seventy eight per cent.

00:25:50: And it seems like most of these new voters voted for the AFD.

00:25:55: The far-right party classified technically as an extremist Party by the German Constitutional Court, they won!

00:26:09: They won thirty nine seats...they needed forty two for a majority in state parliament.

00:26:16: so there are three short but by far and away They won.

00:26:20: Indeed, they increased their voter share by twenty point eight percent up from twenty three seats in two thousand twenty one to thirty nine so three away From the majority they would need to govern.

00:26:35: So what are your big takeaways?

00:26:39: The Zaks and Anhalt election.

00:26:42: Well effect I wasn't too surprised.

00:26:44: that was foreseeable And other parties had left a lot.

00:26:48: One has to make clear that this is still, it's a quite vast but not very populated country with some two million inhabitants.

00:27:02: Yeah, Saxon-Anhaltes the smallest of the German states.

00:27:08: Not

00:27:08: by territory... Not

00:27:09: in land!

00:27:10: ...but population and its one of the poorest.

00:27:14: so there was much discontent.

00:27:17: It was all part of the old East Germany.

00:27:19: Oh, of

00:27:19: course Yeah And that is one one major one major aspect of the whole affair.

00:27:25: The AFD has taken over at least in an east German and east German environment or formerly eastern environmental Has taken over as the anti West German establishment party from the communists PDS on whatever they were called for a number of reasons, and that they then attracted first-time voters.

00:27:52: And that is the most worrying point to me illustrates how little was done... ...to convince first time voters young people at school or wherever That very little if the content of party program of AFD will ever be realised of any advantage to them.

00:28:16: That's never been the case, so they didn't vote after studying The Party program.

00:28:21: well here it is black and white that this will improve my lot nothing!

00:28:27: It's a vote if I show people in power that i hate them And I vote for those who they hate most or fear most.

00:28:36: This can be momentary nature let's face it because whatever their promise economically speaking, to an eighty-five percent nonsense and will never materialize.

00:28:48: Yeah that's not how politics necessarily works though Disappointment

00:28:52: is a huge factor.

00:28:54: The young A majority of young people under thirty in Germany vote for extreme parties which Is currently where we're at

00:29:05: And they know nothing about the German history.

00:29:07: I think People underestimate the outreach.

00:29:10: You said okay.

00:29:11: well then the centrist party The social Democrats, the Christian Democrats don't seem to have a platform that recognizes the young voting generation.

00:29:23: Which is certainly problem if they want to live and survive.

00:29:28: I asked my students how many Instagram followers the national parties have.

00:29:36: And of course the AFTE has more than four hundred fifty seven thousand instagram followers.

00:29:42: Compare that to the CDU, classic old lady of German politics.

00:29:46: Two hundred twenty four thousand less than half The SPD even fewer a hundred seventy thousand.

00:29:54: So I mean you might say oh what does Instagram followers?

00:29:57: Mean?

00:29:58: well if your an old person who doesn't understand it means every day these young people are being pumped full Of off-day propaganda And over the course of days, weeks months and years they're going to start believing this stuff.

00:30:14: So I don't necessarily think it's a short-term thing.

00:30:17: now goonter The AFD has four hundred fifty seven thousand Instagram followers.

00:30:22: Dilinka the left who just won in Berlin have six hundred eighty thousand even more than the AFD.

00:30:29: so what This shows me is that the center traditional parties maybe Don't care or are so incompetent, that they don't realize there's a huge part of their electorate.

00:30:45: It just doesn't make sense to me when it seems clear for anyone with basic understanding of politics.

00:30:51: But if you remember discussions on who will win elections and which age group will win the elections from quite a number years ago... The future is.

00:31:03: we are living in an aging society, so ten years hence it's elderly people probably my age walking on on crutches.

00:31:12: that will determine what happens in germany and not happen because the younger people i mean belin is an exception they lowered their voting age.

00:31:27: Juveniles were asked to vote and whatever they knew, They couldn't probably name all the federal states of Germany due To their horrible schooling quality.

00:31:37: we haven't yet.

00:31:38: I shouldn't take this too seriously.

00:31:41: This is a momentary effect in Berlin.

00:31:43: it was carried brought about not changed by The last government.

00:31:47: We're gonna discuss Berlin later!

00:31:54: I mean the statistics are clear here, Gunter.

00:31:56: I don't even know why i have to make this argument.

00:31:59: Meritz himself said he wanted a half-the voter share of the AFD... The Chancellor.

00:32:05: The opposite has happened!

00:32:06: He's losing all the votes and they're all going to the AFT.

00:32:09: The CDU, Tsai Suu, the CDU in Saxon-Anhalt lost uh seventeen percent of their vote share where the AfD increased it by forty three percent.

00:32:21: You might say this is temporary.

00:32:23: Numbers like that indicate something far more than simply a one factor of young people being angry or duped.

00:32:32: No, no they can see right through This.

00:32:34: They See That The Centrist Parties Don't Care About Them Put No Effort Into According Them And Don'T Offer Any Policies That Say Their Lives Will Get Better.

00:32:42: Well the

00:32:42: others don't do it either.

00:32:45: If you look at the party program of the AFD, it's a wealth of promises without any contact to reality.

00:32:54: I mean young people don't vote because if the pension issue is in the future they even have no idea how the pension system works

00:33:07: through our next two German state elections.

00:33:09: But just the current update on the coalition negotiations...

00:33:13: Oh, yeah!

00:33:14: That's very interesting.

00:33:15: in Sachsen-Anhaltz again The AFD did not only got thirty nine seats they needed forty to govern.

00:33:23: so where are we at Gunther?

00:33:25: Well there is another device in the bush and that is the Bündnis Sarawagenknecht which started as a communist ultra-communist vision of whatever and now has no clearly definable ideology anymore.

00:33:43: It's circulating around the personality of Frau Wagenknecht, who once played an important role in The Linke in Germany.

00:33:51: but that's finished...

00:33:52: And they got five seeds?

00:33:54: They just cracked.

00:33:55: we mentioned earlier about Sweden-the four percent!

00:34:01: uh state parliament with five point three percent giving them five seats.

00:34:08: that's probably quite interesting because the afd guy on top he wants to be voted into prime minister of the state of saxona anhard in december.

00:34:22: this is only possible with the help of the buntner saravakar kinesh and we will see whether this comes.

00:34:29: i think it will happen because they agree on many things of how this country could be further reduced or ruined.

00:34:38: And so, they will vote him into office.

00:34:41: but that doesn't give them a reliable majority Because what they stand for nobody knows and he will need their votes whenever appointments budgets questions of parliamentary daily work.

00:34:57: He will need the support to extort a certain advantage, which I couldn't really describe because what they are after nobody knows.

00:35:08: They themselves will be

00:35:09: ignorant.".

00:35:10: Yeah but we don't know how this new government will take shape in the state of Sachsen-Anhaltz.

00:35:21: There is some weird parliamentary rules there that could lead to new elections.

00:35:28: Anyway it's complicated.

00:35:29: We don't quite know what's gonna happen.

00:35:31: everything was kind of tangled.

00:35:34: In any case, very little of what the AFD promised their voters will happen before long.

00:35:42: how could it?

00:35:43: Okay I want to talk about this so-called Brandmauer –the firewall as a way now getting into Mecklenburg for Palmer.

00:35:52: So this idea is that many I guess we can call them normal parties in Germany have said, We will never allow the AFD to be officially part of a governing coalition.

00:36:08: And we will never join with them if they have the most points.

00:36:11: that become junior members of an AFD state or federal government and this is called The Firewall even though They get the most votes say in Saxony-Anhalt as As we've just seen If all of those other parties say no, we're not going to vote for them.

00:36:31: Then all of them together would have a majority even though they just agree on many things.

00:36:35: They're not the AFD Great now this new party that BSW put in a Sarah Wagenknecht Not having much of history maybe even though there far left Maybe they wouldn't provide those votes needed.

00:36:51: So this is this idea of the Brandmauer and it exists in the federal government of Germany and also in regional elections.

00:36:59: So this is going to take us to the second old East German elections, which took place on the twentyth of September in Mecklenburg-Ford-Palmeren—which was just east of Hamburg and west of Berlin.

00:37:12: And here again The AfD won thirty eight percent of the vote an increase of twenty one percent from the previous election.

00:37:24: so they have the most votes like in Saxony-Anhalt.

00:37:28: However, In second place is the center left party The Social Democrats with thirty five percent and because of this Brandmauer concept it looks Like the previous governor Manuela Schwesisch Will now be the new The New Governor again Because of This Concept Of The Brandmower.

00:37:49: So Why Don't You Talk A Little Bit About MechPomp?

00:37:51: why?

00:37:52: you know Why Is The SPD Strong There And many people are saying it's because this governor herself is quite charismatic and people approve of her

00:38:03: what she did.

00:38:04: She's a very clever politician, she benefited from the The role of scapegoat attributed to the federal government which Is probably not the basic concern A regional prime minister should have Because he or she can just vaguely influence What happens at the federal level?

00:38:27: part of the voting in the state itself.

00:38:31: But she made very clever use, if it... She got away though-in-office with existing problems comparable to Zaksen Anhalt but not as catastrophic because Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has a golden zone on the Baltic Sea coast with enormous investments and Flyover come fly over country zone deep in the interior.

00:39:03: She has a linker and the Green Party to deal with which is not the link we were going to talk about in Belend only different.

00:39:11: she Has an experience to govern with them, and she will continue.

00:39:16: I think this for the AFD wasn't a clear success though they could have caught record muster protest votes against boats but Many people may have been afraid that the paradisical and inverted commons, conditions on the Baltic coast with a balance in tourism could be negatively influenced by an AFD government.

00:39:43: So people were why should we change?

00:39:46: In other parts of Magdenburg-Vorpommern which is a vast country problems where just like in Sachsen-Anhaltz.

00:39:53: so that was one thing.

00:39:54: And she criticized the Chancellor Hamerts in a way that, well... It's part of daily political business and he has to live with it.

00:40:07: Now is good time to start weaving the Chancellor from Christian Democrats back into this.

00:40:15: for first times since German reunification The CDU-the traditional popular center right party all over great German chancellors history from Adenauer to Merkel did not even reach that five percent threshold, which is I guess we could just say a crushing and humiliating defeat for the chancellor's party.

00:40:41: And it really raises some questions.

00:40:44: And I wanted to end with this but i'm going to maybe plant the seed right now... Really you might say that given the huge defeats- Given AFD and the opposite is happening.

00:41:01: People should start thinking really about the future of merits as a chancellor, he said he's going to stay on for now but you know He will very unpopular.

00:41:12: well that That is one thing.

00:41:14: Churchill was unpopular in parts during The Second World War They had an old party government, which is a difference.

00:41:20: Okay Well geographically gonna come closer and we'll end with merits.

00:41:24: We'll get back to merits.

00:41:25: but now we're going to go into the city slash.

00:41:28: state elections in Berlin won by the left on The twentieth of September And here voter turnout was up eleven percent again and forty nine percent Of the youth voters.

00:41:43: So nearly half voted for the Left Who won twenty six percent of the vote that

00:41:48: they could vote for?

00:41:49: The first time at their age of sixteen, which is

00:41:52: I guess we can talk about how well educated They are.

00:41:55: but just because you're sixteen doesn't mean your smarter a disaster.

00:41:59: if You're sixty-six good sir.

00:42:00: Sorry sorry

00:42:01: But you're mature

00:42:02: lots and mature mature people voting

00:42:05: especially in such.

00:42:06: so I mean

00:42:08: Yes there are but they do so far asserted whatever believe and not just for the kick of it, because its advertised on TikTok.

00:42:16: I mean if you look at the source intellectual improvement coming among sixteen, seventeen, fifteen whatever year old... You will find more TikTok than Goethe let alone German history.

00:42:32: what they know about

00:42:33: Germany

00:42:33: is a disaster.

00:42:35: People who know a lot about history don't always make the right decision.

00:42:40: Judgment, judgment has nothing to do with book knowledge.

00:42:44: You could have lots of book knowledge and poor judgement anyway.

00:42:47: Well I don't think so.

00:42:49: If you didn't know anything your judgement is based on momentary impressions.

00:42:53: There are three top headline stories in the Berlin election.

00:42:59: One Is The what they're calling the Zoran Mamdani of Berlin, Frau Elif Erlap who is the daughter of Turkish political dissidents.

00:43:12: Who is the head of The Left Party and the likely new mayor slash governor of Berlin.

00:43:20: I think she has put together a coalition.

00:43:24: it needs to be formally signed but she's nearly there according and her own interview.

00:43:33: Again, I said forty-nine percent of the use vote.

00:43:35: so headline one is this new woman.

00:43:37: And then two other things.

00:43:39: here Is Her main policy position seems to be nationalizing.

00:43:44: The apartments in Berlin that are owned by institutional investors is the second headline.

00:43:53: And a third headline, well not she personally necessarily but The Left Party in Berlin, Die Linke has been charged with harboring anti-Semites.

00:44:06: So those are three headlines there.

00:44:09: Gunther what's your take away from the election?

00:44:14: This to me is the greatest disaster politically

00:44:18: and in more than sex.

00:44:19: and on how?

00:44:19: today by

00:44:20: far Nobody cares.

00:44:22: broken straw who ruled sucks an unhub, but the German capital Berlin once the center of the Nazis then Stalin's fledgling he Cut out of whatever.

00:44:35: The end of the Second World War with pomp and circumstance Re-instituted as the new cap the old New Capital when Bonn was abandoned, has been very improperly administered ever since.

00:44:50: Berlin governments for many years used to be splendid but it's been a continuous downfall and if you look around in Berlin it's dirt, its disaster.

00:45:05: Well except

00:45:05: for all the new areas that are brand-new with luxury apartments they're quite beautiful and clean.

00:45:13: Yeah but thats one point.

00:45:14: The other is...the state has to function.

00:45:21: You apply for construction permit in Berlin And you wait many times as long As we would do at Hamburg or Düsseldorf.

00:45:28: But that's one thing.

00:45:29: Let's start with this thing, the apartments.

00:45:32: I think what you read in the media is so.

00:45:34: now these people from New Left The old left was nothing The new left With their new ideology Their new leadership They have discovered That finding cheap accommodation in Berlin Is difficult.

00:45:49: Please tell me One capital In a developed industrial country Or just A place like New York Which has never become a Capital.

00:45:57: Well, it's cheap and Mamdani won't change it.

00:46:01: And nobody would change in.

00:46:02: well How could you do?

00:46:03: It You could build new apartments possess them as the state and Put them on the market for those in need at a price they can pay.

00:46:14: I cost you

00:46:15: a bit of money

00:46:15: capital where this works and its Vienna in Austria.

00:46:20: I could tell you the reason but that is a story in itself because it's very

00:46:24: cheap though.

00:46:25: people only spend twenty to thirty percent of their monthly wages instead of fifty to sixty percent.

00:46:32: You can pass on your rental contract two year.

00:46:36: children and that is totally different legal sphere, So that is not Austria.

00:46:43: That it's Vienna,

00:46:44: but the capital.

00:46:45: your criteria was name a European or world.

00:46:49: But

00:46:49: then find some place is difficult because

00:46:53: sure what?

00:46:54: The amount of housing there that has sort of not owned to squeeze renters but owed by the community Serves too lower rents for the entire city.

00:47:07: so I think nationalizing the housing might be an extreme example in Berlin, but this idea that nothing... and i'm going to go straight to merits.

00:47:20: This is where merits and the SPD and the Centralist parties have it all wrong.

00:47:27: they policy to reduce the rent.

00:47:31: They're just like, let things carry on as they are and they want to focus on other things!

00:47:35: They're not paying attention to the voters who are complaining about very specific things.

00:47:40: so why not have other policies in place or strengthening current policies to at least halt rapid increases in rent or whatever?

00:47:51: And it's a political thing if you're going Right?

00:47:56: You've got to recognize, as Frau Ehrald did with the link.

00:47:59: This is something that lots of people agree on—let me offer you some things!

00:48:03: Maybe she's offered too much for the nationalization scheme... But the other parties offer zero.

00:48:10: In fact, all Merz says about the German people is that they're lazy and he hastens to say oh I don't mean their lazy but if you are the prime minister or excuse me Chancellor Gunther And you have to defend yourself for saying i dont think Germans Are Lazy You've already lost

00:48:26: Well you may...but If you tell them your not Compare The Stress An Unemployed Has in Germany with an unemployed in your country.

00:48:39: I could well imagine that a few, i'm not talking about those who can't work for whatever reason but i'm talking about us who have no desire to do so.

00:48:48: living on the welfare state is splendidly possible and

00:48:52: Germany.".

00:48:53: But Meritz wanted workers to work more hours.

00:48:57: his comments weren't about unemployed people Germans who already work and have full-time jobs.

00:49:07: He said they're lazy or implied as much, And then he had the backtrack from that.

00:49:11: you can't do that.

00:49:13: You know when you look at all these elections?

00:49:14: The cdu is getting killed everywhere Because their unpopular They don't offer any positive vision of Germany except blood sweat and tears.

00:49:25: an unlike during World War two in Churchill.

00:49:28: Germany is not at war.

00:49:31: But let me just briefly I mean come back to the thing in Berlin with a big promise of cheap housing through nationalization or expropriation, they won't expropriate because that will never go through.

00:49:45: They'll try other way around.

00:49:47: The history is quite interesting.

00:49:50: In two thousand four the then left wing Social Democrat-Berlin government sold sixty five thousands state owned flats and ones we talk about.

00:50:02: They were owned by a state-run company called GSW, and they sold them to private equity interests in order to brush up their budget because there was on the brink of bankruptcy as always in Berlin.

00:50:18: Though that got huge federal contributions for tolerating capital debt.

00:50:23: In twenty thirteen an enterprise called Deutsche Wohnen bought these from private equity people.

00:50:33: And in twenty-one, so another eight years but afterwards the Deutsche Wohnen, Vonovia bought the Deutsche Wohnen and they got into possession.

00:50:45: Well... In twenty one The government started a repurchase of these apartments.

00:50:53: So in September Twenty One the state of Berlin bought round about fifteen thousand apartments back from Vanovia for whatever between two point five and three billion euros.

00:51:07: And in twenty-four so to years ago another four to four thousand five hundred five thousand partners, and those In a place called Liechtenbach that you wouldn't really love to live there But they bought them back.

00:51:22: the thing now is why did I sell them?

00:51:25: The first place then brought him back at a huge price.

00:51:29: Now They wish too to get it all for free, which will never happen.

00:51:33: They would have to pay compensation whatever the market price they could never muster.

00:51:40: that would be thirty billion euros.

00:51:42: so they would declare this is

00:51:44: twenty two forty billion euros four Yeah but they'll

00:51:50: never have it.

00:51:51: So if you don't know what's going on in the future then I'm sure there are a lot of people who want to make money with their own money.

00:52:00: You think that they will agree to this?

00:52:02: No, it would go all the way up.

00:52:05: The ladder of the juridical system and probably after five or six years when this government will long be forgotten.

00:52:14: you have an answer which is what do you need?

00:52:19: And I mean It's so simple What you need is investments both private in public In cheap Accommodation for people not being able to pay higher rent or to buy property.

00:52:34: This can be achieved in two ways, you improve the legal position which is already quite strong but not strong enough of renters in Germany against proprietors so that they cannot be thrown out after a year whatever.

00:52:51: You can base this on guarantees if you give and have make it attractive to build accommodation, To be marketed at a price which has nothing do with what you can get in the upper class environment where market is free.

00:53:11: That's never been carried out.

00:53:13: so they use their possessions.

00:53:15: The state!

00:53:16: The grand administrator of all public welfare...the sole institution as we read on left-wing media.

00:53:27: Justice!

00:53:29: No, sir.

00:53:31: The state is the poorest of administrators on public welfare and we can see this in many aspects.

00:53:38: We need state control But with his hands full of money which he doesn't own it's a disaster And you have to be either hooked by the left wing bait-and-tackle system or stupid to call this a solution.

00:53:59: It's a bait and tackle, it is a trap!

00:54:02: And people hop into it gladly.

00:54:05: So what we need in improving the housing market are those who can create property whilst young which they have paid off when their old pensioners.

00:54:20: You have two goals with one another namely you have improved the pensioner slot.

00:54:27: The biggest expense for a pensioner is rent if he hasn't paid off his property.

00:54:32: It's the same, it's mortgage.

00:54:35: So you have to support people who make it easier To have personal use.

00:54:42: Property on-the-market and first time buyers should be given Allowances to deduct whatever they can.

00:54:50: Its in Belgium its eluxiates.

00:54:51: wherever You look at Europe?

00:54:56: You have nothing you can do with the exception of a few ecological, non-sensic rules.

00:55:01: The German policy almost punishes people for wanting to own their home which certainly is another way that they could've taken it.

00:55:11: but...

00:55:12: And to pepper it more

00:55:14: please!

00:55:14: It's not like the sensible parties in Germany are suggesting this Which might be popular to young people Certainly not

00:55:25: to the young people working in earlier.

00:55:27: Our penultimate

00:55:27: point is, The idea of stories about anti-Semites and In the left

00:55:33: it's dreadful.

00:55:33: It makes me vomit.

00:55:34: as you may know I have my grandmother from another side was Jewish and murdered.

00:55:39: what Is there going on?

00:55:42: To Me a horror A horror that Jewish People are under threat again And the German capital and this is glossed over.

00:55:54: I don't believe a single bit of it.

00:55:56: And if they were, really after this... Why haven't these people been thrown out?

00:56:03: the so-called party?

00:56:05: Not one!

00:56:06: They may reduce their official obligations but will again catch money at parliament.

00:56:13: This is disgusting and for a German –and i am a German– For a German in the limelight of her history its disgrace.

00:56:22: And that's why we don't have to discuss Brandt Mauer for firewalls and all this nonsense.

00:56:28: If the Greens, and the Social Democrats form a coalition with this left-wing party in Berlin there will be no discussion of any more firewalls because these firewall is like a burning

00:56:40: synagogue.".

00:56:41: Yeah so I think that's an important point to stress... Still has acquired two coalition partners, the Greens and the social Democrats who just insisted that The party condemn anti-Semitism.

00:57:00: And the argument then is because part of the off day Problem not only are they far right.

00:57:06: They're anti immigrants but there also many of them are antisemitic.

00:57:13: The argument here is, well we'd never had a Brandmauer against Die Linke.

00:57:17: We've only have this Brandmower against the AfD.

00:57:21: But if it's so easy to accept a party like the left in Berlin, that seems to have some anti-Semitism as rakes by just saying oh Just sign a document.

00:57:31: That says you're against it.

00:57:33: What does that really mean about?

00:57:36: It isn't worth.

00:57:36: the paper is

00:57:37: written around mower against the AFD.

00:57:40: If they can just nothing

00:57:41: potentially

00:57:41: say now in socks and on Halt or indeed in Mecklenburg for Palmer or any other place in Germany, oh just make a sign of document that says we're not anti-Semitic and poof.

00:57:53: Suddenly they are in

00:57:54: power.".

00:57:56: It's clear the case.

00:57:57: this could be the case.

00:57:58: you normalize the AFD.

00:58:01: if now imagine The AFD would no be lining up with Nazis celebrating the murder Jews They will be forbidden within four weeks.

00:58:13: So now what happens with these creatures on the so-called left wing?

00:58:18: What does this to do with socialism, nothing.

00:58:21: If opportunism of established centrist parties like The Greens and the SPD in Berlin sings to a new hitherto unreached low

00:58:32: by

00:58:33: forming coalition with them based on a declaration but I don't know what anti-semitism is or am against it Of course But otherwise let the whole thing run as normal.

00:58:43: This is probably a crisis for these parties.

00:58:47: Certainly not for her mares, These parties would have to justify what they do in Berlin ruining the German image because it's our capital

00:58:56: Right.

00:58:57: So if you believe in stable and centrist german politics Gunther Yeah Basically.

00:59:04: The question now comes down To the head honcho namely Chancellor Merts facing defeat after defeat Horribly unpopular horribly unpopular even within his own party It is true.

00:59:21: His approval rating as like eight percent, he's very unpopular.

00:59:25: He's unpopular.

00:59:28: Let

00:59:28: me agree there.

00:59:31: Ninety-two percent of Germans think that he's doing a poor job

00:59:34: You know?

00:59:36: That's pretty bad.

00:59:37: Not only is he unpopular in the polls, his party loses and it's losing so badly.

00:59:42: And they just were kicked out of state parliament at Mecklenburg-Forpommern Really?

00:59:46: The question has to be Should merits stay or should you go?

00:59:51: I'm clearly... You'll get a final word on merits.

00:59:55: It's not going to become more popular.

00:59:59: He hasn't learned his lessons.

01:00:01: He doesn't know what he was doing.

01:00:02: Everything that comes from his mouth pisses someone off of people, why except for the purposes of continuity is he hanging around?

01:00:14: Certainly as elections come up more and more Senator Wright People are going to be voting for the off day.

01:00:20: And then CDU is simply going to continue its downhill slide.

01:00:23: at least with someone new they can have a new beginning.

01:00:29: so I say Merit's Merits must go okay.

01:00:31: sooner or The

01:00:32: better.

01:00:32: i say all And he will stay.

01:00:38: The CDU has, in its history been quite a bit of an association voting for the chancellor and once they had a chancellor like you know very good one that by later glorified him He was thrown out.

01:00:52: That was Ludwig Erhardt who invented the functioning German post-war economy.

01:00:58: But then first economic crisis she had to leave when it made us get there.

01:01:04: So the history of the CDU could give support to your documentation, which I don't share.

01:01:09: The most prominent reason is that there's nobody around who will take his job.

01:01:15: There is no body around...I mean Jack and Jill.

01:01:18: you can't pick-and make chancellor!

01:01:21: ...There was nobody at a prominent CDU parliamentarian stupid enough to do this.

01:01:28: He has clearly made false.

01:01:31: They are very noticeable, his speeches at times uncontrolled but that was the same with Ardenau and others.

01:01:41: Let alone Kiesinger or Willy Brandt.

01:01:44: Will the SPD stop the government?

01:01:46: they can do this tomorrow because they won't survive.

01:01:50: The Schwerzing effect will not help them.

01:01:53: So who in the CDU would be interested?

01:01:58: you read them in the press, this is Zoda from Bavaria.

01:02:01: He isn't stupid and Avus from North Rangosphalia has an election to face on May night next year so he will stay home.

01:02:10: do that.

01:02:11: Why should he hop into Matt's place now?

01:02:15: for what reason?

01:02:16: Just another person with a same coalition The same problems?

01:02:21: What could he do differently?

01:02:23: Probably give different statements but wouldn't really help.

01:02:28: So what he has to do is, after the Merkel years and the Schultz-years of doing nothing we had to confront a period.

01:02:39: if were to change certain aspects in our welfare state you would have to touch people's purse more or less.

01:02:53: There are many alternatives for how he markets himself.

01:02:56: that's terrible.

01:02:57: There are many alternatives on how he addresses certain issues in public.

01:03:02: But what you could do?

01:03:04: as a fact to come closer to solutions for problems we discussed, there aren't any alternative.

01:03:10: Doberund has successfully limited illegal immigration which was huge point and very important one And the European issue is Still going strong though.

01:03:22: We know all the difficulties we have, we have difficulties with our ex-partner at the USA... ...we can no longer rely on!

01:03:28: We have difficulties wth the horrible Putin who is still waiting for his wars and there will be NO peace and nothing but beautiful beaches or whatever nonsense.

01:03:39: Nothing it won't change.

01:03:40: It'll go unlike this And if we gave up supporting Ukraine The AfD in Putin would've been happy.

01:03:47: But Moldavia may be the next country.

01:03:51: Max has to stay because his job needs continuation, there is nobody who wishes to do it in his place and changing people but continuing the job which is unpleasant doesn't make any sense.

01:04:07: Dr.

01:04:07: Gutter-Daner thank you very much!

01:04:09: You're most welcome.

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