00:00:19: and welcome to the Transatlanticist at The American Centrum in Hamburg, Germany.

00:00:24: We are recording on Friday the sixth of November at sixteen hundred so things might have changed by the time you hear this but I will be giving you up-to-date information as of now.

00:00:38: today we'll While focusing specifically on reactions from Germany, general European reactions and my special guest is journalist Christina Neuhaus.

00:00:50: Welcome, Christina!

00:00:51: Hi

00:00:52: How you doing today?

00:00:54: I'm good are you?

00:00:55: Very

00:00:55: well thanks.

00:00:56: Christina has been reporting from the halls of power in both Germany and United States for two decades.

00:01:03: In The United States she worked for Deutsche Welle Radio in Washington DC And for Oregon Public Radio.

00:01:10: Upon returning to Berlin, she became politics editor for Die Welt and then political correspondent For the day a payday that the APD more recently.

00:01:21: She has held a number of positions with The AFP including foreign affairs editor economics Correspondent an political correspondent.

00:01:31: And since two thousand twenty-five Christina has been covering the German federal government for the news agency EPD with a focus on social issues, which we'll discuss today including inequality poverty unemployment and pensions.

00:01:47: So Christina I woke up at five am On Wednesday morning to check the results.

00:01:54: And now is going to go back to bed thinking that there would be not much to see, votes would still be counted.

00:02:00: It'd just be six hours after Washington DC time and the first thing I saw was South Carolina

00:02:08: blue

00:02:10: that the Democrats somehow won Lindsey Graham's seat in South Carolina which has been a Republican seat for God knows how long?

00:02:20: And then the next thing that flashed on the screen was that Texas had already been decided had beaten Ken Paxton, and that the deep red state of Texas as it turns out might not be so deep right after all.

00:02:35: So rather than going back to bed I ended up staying up my day!

00:02:40: Christina how did you find out about the results?

00:02:44: And what were your initial reactions?

00:02:47: I didn't get up that early...I got up at six thirty five which is just my usual wake-up time during And I remember, I had gone to bed thinking what is the news alert going be in the morning?

00:03:03: What's gonna on my phone as breaking news.

00:03:07: Then my phone did start pinging away and yeah... ...I was just surprised that results were A already in but also already that clear like many seats for the Democrats.

00:03:24: And

00:03:26: were you surprised by any specific race that you saw in the first moment?

00:03:30: Did you notice Texas or South Carolina, yeah.

00:03:32: Yeah I just as you mentioned Texas...I don't think i knew much about the south carolina thing but texas had been reported here.

00:03:43: a lot like tellerico was on the news year a lot..i was aware of that race and thought wow!

00:03:49: That is pretty

00:03:53: surprising.

00:03:54: South Carolina had been in the mix, but only as a very extreme outlier sort of not really within The polling margins of error.

00:04:02: But maybe just and there but no one was really focused on it being A potential switch.

00:04:08: And I was interesting too for south carolina.

00:04:11: also texas they were.

00:04:12: these weren't wins by like One or two percentage

00:04:15: right?

00:04:15: These

00:04:15: are huge wipeouts which is why the races could be called when we woke up

00:04:20: exactly

00:04:21: morning.

00:04:22: As of now, as of Friday the Senate is fifty-four seats out of a hundred to Democrats and forty four to Republicans.

00:04:35: There are two outstanding one is Alaska and one is Mississippi.

00:04:39: both Of those the Democrats have narrow leads so we could see a final senate makeup of fifty six To forty four.

00:04:46: in those races We probably won't learn about for another week Right.

00:04:50: And the house is still being counted at the moment, it's two hundred fifty three to one hundred fifty seven out of four hundred thirty five.

00:04:58: and again roughly speaking people now are predicting that the final tally will be two hundred sixty To one hundred seventy-five which is a pretty strong majority for the Democrats?

00:05:09: We'll see what happens then.

00:05:11: also importantly Five governors seats were flipped from Republican to Democratic hands Georgia Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Nevada.

00:05:21: And also a number of state legislatures.

00:05:24: so that's basically where we're at right now.

00:05:27: people have been calling this a blue tsunami and Of course the the woke left has already complained That you shouldn't be calling it a blue Tsunami because people who have experienced tsunamis?

00:05:38: Have a bad sort of feelings about tsunamis which I think is pretty woke.

00:05:44: Do you ever stand on the blue tsunami talking point?

00:05:49: No, I read that too.

00:05:51: That people said oh no but it's tsunami is bad and blah blah.

00:05:55: blah was like yeah

00:05:57: waves kill people to

00:05:59: they do don't they?

00:06:00: yes

00:06:01: not just tsunamis.

00:06:02: there

00:06:02: you go.

00:06:03: surfers might have a positive association anyway okay.

00:06:09: so we're gonna focus now on just the reactions in their Berlin where I was going to start the section by saying that Americans have very little interest when they're voting in how Europeans might perceive them, Germans might perceive.

00:06:26: It's really not in the top ten of issues of concern for Americans but on the other hand German and European voters are very interested.

00:06:35: what is going on America.

00:06:37: a number reasons then decided well it isn't right.

00:06:40: last week before election Trump and the Republicans were making a big point about saying, look at the student protests in France.

00:06:49: Oh my God!

00:06:51: If you elect Democrats... The streets will be full of masked Antifa anarchist hooligans burning our cities and lugating their shops.

00:07:01: so European politics does break through occasionally to the American electorate.

00:07:06: but I don't think people are paying attention anyway.

00:07:09: broadly speaking why aren't Germans so interested in something that's pretty nerdy like the American midterm elections.

00:07:18: Well, I mean you don't always have to go into the nerdy depths but especially right now US obviously is just very influential and powerful around.

00:07:33: So whatever the American government does is going to have an influence on people over here and everywhere else.

00:07:41: And I think especially right now, my attention is even higher because Donald Trump has done a lot of things that were well.

00:07:51: it did influence things over here like terrorists for example or his.

00:07:57: It stands on Ukraine and Russia.

00:08:00: And that's all very important to people over here, so I think this year it is different.

00:08:09: there are more attention but you're right its always of interest in the history because obviously the Allied forces liberated Germany decades, so people are in close touch with that.

00:08:30: And then also the cultural aspect you know starting with music and going all the way to film and everything else.

00:08:37: So yeah it's just... The connections are very closed and go back a long time.

00:08:44: Yeah and feelings about America Go Back A Long Time and they sort of vary wildly.

00:08:51: Yes.

00:08:51: Barack Obama, for whatever reason was hugely popular even gave a famous speech at the Brandenburg Gate.

00:09:00: You were there?

00:09:01: I did!

00:09:02: Were you in a professional capacity?

00:09:04: No.

00:09:05: How was it?

00:09:07: It was

00:09:08: pretty

00:09:09: interesting.

00:09:10: just people who are so hyped.

00:09:13: It was just the atmosphere, it's super interesting to see.

00:09:17: I didn't want to miss it because we were too big of an event...

00:09:19: Do you remember anything else about that specifically?

00:09:22: Uh no!

00:09:24: It is a long time ago.

00:09:29: Okay so on one scale of popularity We have someone like John F Kennedy or Barack Obama and then Donald Trump who If you don't know, I will tell you is not popular in Germany.

00:09:42: Really?

00:09:43: Yeah So it did some digging just to figure out how unpopular he was and In July the YouGov tracking poll found that nine percent of Germans had a favorable opinion of Donald Trump And eighty eight have an unfavorable opinion.

00:10:00: so a net minus seventy-nine approval rating Given the fact that people who do have an opinion about Donald Trump, of course they'd be happy About the election result.

00:10:11: But then I started immediately thinking about merits.

00:10:14: according to statistician The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is a little bit less unpopular among Germans than Donald Trump.

00:10:22: So trumps net approval as minus seventy.

00:10:25: nine merits is minus seventy three

00:10:28: and there you go.

00:10:29: But he's far and away the most unpopular leader in Europe.

00:10:33: So like, I don't know...I just look at those two things- I see an unpopular you might say rights.

00:10:41: You know Trump is not ideological i would argue but his a right often considered A Far Right figure Unpopular, Merz also unpopular?

00:10:50: I mean to what extent do Germans think of Merz as being on The right In the sense that trump Would be?

00:10:59: And how much does that explain his unpopularity?

00:11:03: Well, I think even people who really don't agree with anything that Matz would seriously compare him to Trump.

00:11:15: Because yes, Matz is super conservative especially on social issues of all kinds but he's not authoritarian, and he's also fairly predictable.

00:11:31: Like you're not gonna see him get up and tweet something completely insane like that?

00:11:38: That's...that's not going to happen.

00:11:40: so at least you know what you're getting right!

00:11:42: So yes I would say he is definitely staunchly conservative but

00:11:52: At the same time when he's speaking, He has been criticized.

00:11:55: This is merits for sometimes saying things that he shouldn't have put him in

00:12:02: hot water.

00:12:04: Blamed on the fact that he has never held a government position before becoming chancellor like usually.

00:12:11: The way it works over here is you become an important political figure in one of the Bundesländer, You know and one of his states And then after that you move further up On the federal level and then you maybe have a chance to become Chancellor.

00:12:25: But he never had a position like that.

00:12:26: He never head an executive's position before so he doesn't.

00:12:30: Maybe he doesn't really know that you really have to be careful each and every time.

00:12:35: You say anything in a setting that's remotely public, yeah?

00:12:42: Well one interesting similarity between the two is both Trump

00:12:47: and

00:12:47: Merit came from business background without.

00:12:54: Trump was not governor or mayor of city.

00:12:56: He just went straight business to the head of U.S.

00:13:01: government and merits as well?

00:13:03: I just want to stick on this idea.

00:13:05: in what respects is someone like Meritz or generally, the center right party that's CDU, the Christian Democrats in Germany?

00:13:12: In what sense then?

00:13:13: are they conservative?

00:13:15: Or do we not compare say American republicanism too German conservatism

00:13:21: at all?

00:13:23: The thing is the party landscape in Germany, it's just so different because we don't.

00:13:29: Just have two main parties and then there is nothing for a really long time And everything else that comes behind.

00:13:36: That Is Really On The Margins.

00:13:40: It Doesn't Work Like That Over Here And It Works Less And Less.

00:13:44: Like That Because We Used To Have The Christian Democrats As You Mentioned right side of things, and the social democrats on left-eer sides.

00:13:55: Those were really big parties but in many elections that's not even true anymore!

00:14:00: So I think it is difficult to compare these platforms directly just because the system works differently.

00:14:09: But I would compare Christian Democrats and Republicans, there are some similarities on economic issues like less government more letting businesses do what they can or want to... And also in social issues

00:14:29: which?

00:14:32: Well, for example like pressure on people who don't work.

00:14:37: Like more pressure less help if you can sum it up like that.

00:14:42: Okay.

00:14:42: So so an issues of welfare?

00:14:45: For example?

00:14:46: yeah Yeah

00:14:47: What about uncultural issues?

00:14:49: say something like abortion or Something like that?

00:14:53: well I Don't think You Can go as far right on abortion in Germany, and you can't in the US without losing like vast groups of voters.

00:15:07: The debate here is usually should we leave it that way?

00:15:12: Or Should We Make Abortion More Accessible?

00:15:16: It's Not.

00:15:17: Should We Roll Back Abortion Rights?

00:15:20: You Can't Really Do That Because Society Is Way More Advanced On These Issues.

00:15:26: Over Here We're more on the progressive side of we don't say

00:15:30: advanced.

00:15:30: that's not woke.

00:15:31: Yeah, you're different.

00:15:35: Good okay?

00:15:36: So I mean II think then just to tie this part up The important point about say the center or the Christian Democrats again They're not even all Christian anymore right there.

00:15:47: sometimes they just for simplicity is sake refer to them as traditional Republican normies.

00:15:55: Less government, less taxes... Yeah!

00:15:58: ...less government regulation of business on social issues you know generally wanting to support normal families and normal marriages but not necessarily super extreme on issues like abortion or same-sex marriage or any other things.

00:16:13: yeah And then there's a party in.

00:16:14: this is my next question.

00:16:16: that sort takes up kind something like the MAGA ultra-right ideas of some of Trump and Trump supporters.

00:16:26: And this is the alternative for Germany, The AfD.

00:16:31: So...the AfD isn't a difficult position because many people say that they are MAGA aligned and there's evidence for that.

00:16:40: There has been a leak in the press showing That there have been a lot of coordination between Trump & Trump supporters and the Alternative for Deutschland There are a whole number of things.

00:16:51: So, does this defeat for the Republicans and probably specifically MAGA Republicans in the US mean anything to the AfD here?

00:17:01: Who now I think is the biggest according to polls...the biggest party all over Germany although not in power anywhere yet

00:17:10: No!

00:17:11: Not in power any where yet.

00:17:12: but also by numbers actual party members.

00:17:17: But yeah, in the polls they are number one.

00:17:19: yes that's right.

00:17:20: um They were pretty disappointed after the midterms.

00:17:24: They largely blamed it on The Iran War and also said like Trump didn't keep his promises.

00:17:32: Like you know lowering cost of living things like That.

00:17:35: I actually don't think that It makes a big difference for them.

00:17:41: I mean, we'll have to wait for the next polls to come out.

00:17:44: But i don't think that voters over here work that way you know?

00:17:50: I feel like maybe IFD voters are disappointed right now and people who vote for progressive parties are happy but it doesn't really sway their vote or their allegiance...I don't Okay,

00:18:08: I mentioned this leak of AFD documents.

00:18:11: Do you want to maybe tell us a little bit about that?

00:18:15: Well what happened is that email accounts got hacked.

00:18:21: nobody really knows

00:18:23: who

00:18:24: did this and who's behind it.

00:18:28: nobody claimed like responsibility or anything.

00:18:31: And they just dumped somewhere on the dark web, a lot of journalists have spent the last few weeks since that happened to go through all these documents.

00:18:41: I've read some where there is four hundred thousand emails and documents connected.

00:18:49: What the IFD says is that, The accounts that got hacked haven't been used in a long time.

00:18:57: So they're trying to downplay it which is understandable but It was definitely enough Material and it was recent enough To lay open some connections like the ones you just mentioned or how They dealt with people who had been in super right-wing extremist groups, who are not supposed to be able to just join the IFD but they all did.

00:19:25: You know things like that.

00:19:27: so yeah there have been a lot of news reports on it and different aspects of this in the past few weeks.

00:19:34: Interesting!

00:19:35: So you don't think will necessarily benefit or lose from this outcome?

00:19:44: No, I don't.

00:19:46: What you said is right.

00:19:47: they do have close ties to certain parts of the Republican Party but i dont think that's why voters over here like them.

00:19:59: Of course they talk about international things But in past few months this has not been US usually more Russia because their also quite close people in the Kremlin.

00:20:13: But still, the main topics that they talk about are domestic issues.

00:20:17: And those don't really change with a change of the US Congress.

00:20:23: OK so you mentioned Russia?

00:20:25: Let's talk a little bit about Ukraine politic, Russian politics and how the midterms might have affected.

00:20:34: sort S.P.D coalition in Berlin, you know how are they reacting to the midterms?

00:20:44: In light of the sort of big problem on Germany's doorstep which is this war just one country away?

00:20:50: Yeah I would say very very very cautiously optimistic because On the one hand now the democratic dominance in Congress and the Democrats general idea on how to deal with Russia, Ukraine is much closer.

00:21:11: To what?

00:21:12: The German government thinks it's right thing to do but Trump can still do so many things.

00:21:19: And you know I think that fear That either it's not gonna change at all.

00:21:27: So we're just going to keep having the problems that We've had for the past.

00:21:31: what two years or three For a path few years feels longer.

00:21:39: Or and that's another concern that I read several times, but he might even pivot more towards Russia now just because he's angry.

00:21:52: There was this one interview with one of the security experts from The Social Democratic Party, Zimtia Möller is her name and she said Trump might become an angry duck.

00:22:06: not a lame duck but an angry Duck.

00:22:09: I think that's the main concern now.

00:22:12: Even if there is some relief, we still don't know what this guy will do next day and it'll continue for a long time.

00:22:21: Did anyone else in government make any statements about or are they keeping their mouth shut?

00:22:28: They're keeping their mouths shut!

00:22:30: you know, the German government has like this regular press conference three times a week.

00:22:36: And so on Wednesday around midday was one of the times.

00:22:41: this weekend they were asked about it and there were very careful not to say anything apart from.

00:22:48: You Know The United States is an important partner.

00:22:52: we will work together no matter who's in power.

00:22:55: blah blah blah This type of diplomatic talk but say anything.

00:23:02: I saw something from the secretary of defense, Pistorius.

00:23:08: He said he was happy it wasn't a historic day but tried to make that more of social democrat statement than government statement because in this Social Democratic Party

00:23:22: Okay and besides official responses what are you hearing?

00:23:28: Sort of underneath the surface there in Berlin.

00:23:31: What are politicians thinking and not saying out loud?

00:23:35: Well, my impression is that people Are a bit more hopeful than In The next presidential election.

00:23:44: Maybe somebody who has More predictable And less authoritarian Has A chance Of winning probably more from the Democratic Party than from The Republican Party.

00:23:59: So I think that's now, the date people are looking at because again... From now until November twenty-twenty eight it is just gonna be Trump anyway and he has so much power on the international scene That yeah we still have to deal with that.

00:24:18: but i think there some hope.

00:24:22: if we somehow make it through the next two years, then things are going to get better.

00:24:27: And their relationship with the S is gonna return something more normal again or like what you used to

00:24:33: know.".

00:24:34: Yeah as you mentioned that I just note here a quotation from Emily Haber who was a former German ambassador at Washington.

00:24:43: she said there will probably be some degree of self-delusion in Europe which will come back into the old normals.

00:24:52: But she says this does not alter the declining role of Europe for American policy in security and global order, which has structural reason.

00:25:04: And is not tied to partisanship.

00:25:07: Well thank you miss Habba for crushing all hope.

00:25:13: No I mean i think he's right.

00:25:16: most politicians over here know that what we knew with Barack Obama or even presidents before him.

00:25:26: Yeah, that's not gonna come back.

00:25:28: I mean partly because certain things have also just been destroyed and dismantled.

00:25:33: you know won't won't come back.

00:25:35: That way can be built backup quickly either.

00:25:39: yeah If you pay attention to American foreign policy official documents going back fifteen twenty years, You go back to Obama saying the same thing that the US is pivoting away from Europe.

00:25:51: Europe stable and strong enough and wealthy enough To support itself.

00:25:56: Trump Has been unpopular in Germany.

00:26:00: not because The general structural trends as frohaber says have changed it's just because he sees does things in the Trumpian way, he says things which make people mad.

00:26:11: But it's not because of.

00:26:12: the policy has shifted a great deal.

00:26:14: and even when it comes to say moving American bases out of Germany He just suggested moving them to Poland Which isn't so bad for anyone It doesn't change anything.

00:26:26: And also then you

00:26:28: didn't really do

00:26:29: it.

00:26:32: Has any German political party really come out and been like, hey this is great.

00:26:37: What we see here as an extension of the young student-led movements in Serbia In Hungary Potentially in France that we can somehow get youth together And broad coalitions to defeat the far right in our societies?

00:26:57: Oh yeah, sure.

00:26:58: I mean...I think the clearest that i've read were politicians from a left party but also to a certain degree The Greens and even some people in the Social Democratic Party which as you mentioned is part of government But mainly the Leftist Party or Green Party are very like.

00:27:19: yes this shows That a win for progressive politics is still possible, even though there's some sort of right-wing shift in so many places.

00:27:32: It's still possible and you know... In parentheses we can do it too!

00:27:38: That's what they're saying that's what their thinking.

00:27:42: yeah

00:27:43: okay interesting.

00:27:44: well let's stay on that theme.

00:27:46: one of the most important issues male voter behavior, men voting.

00:27:56: I think in previous German elections and at various levels we've seen a huge number especially of young men voting for the far right.

00:28:05: And indeed We saw in Trump's presidential election two years ago A huge trend towards Men Voting For Trump.

00:28:14: But just to give you an idea back To The US Of How Huge this shift has been in the last two years between men young man voting for The Democrats now In Iowa.

00:28:29: This is men between the ages of eighteen and forty four shifted to Democrats by thirty three points.

00:28:36: so one out of Wow,

00:28:36: yeah

00:28:37: a Texas forty six nearly half Of Men Young Man Between the Ages of Eighteen And Forty Four Forty Six plus forty six, Kansas.

00:28:46: Plus thirty four amongst all voters including women when it.

00:28:50: women have always and were also strongly democratic.

00:28:53: but even a woman shifted plus twenty seven to the Democrats.

00:28:59: so there are danger bells ringing for me here.

00:29:02: what we see is The defeat of old boring white men by anything.

00:29:09: But people like me.

00:29:10: So danger bells ring.

00:29:12: no that's a joke.

00:29:15: The the half day, very much has a big thing going with young men.

00:29:21: So would you want to just talk about the after his appeal?

00:29:25: To young man and maybe what these midterms might say about the future of that relationship.

00:29:31: right so I think the appeal off Very very right wing parties or you could even say a right-wing extremists in some cases two young men is kind of the same or similar everywhere.

00:29:47: I mean, they're all very misogynistic.

00:29:50: so they can't really appeal to women.

00:29:53: but they can appeal to men.

00:29:55: and i think They can appeal too young man in trying to tell them that they are treated unfairly That there are trodden down by Women by traditional parties By migrants?

00:30:08: I don't know things like that.

00:30:14: But I think that getting the sort of anger vote doesn't hold up long term, you know?

00:30:22: Because at some point people realize well this doesn't really make my life any better.

00:30:29: Like even maybe these parties are now super hard on migration or issues like But my rent is still too high and, uh... My grocery bill is still to big.

00:30:42: And things like that.

00:30:43: so I think from what i gather a lot of the topics in the midterm elections That won a lot people over for the democratic side.

00:30:52: were these These real life issues you know?

00:30:56: Like actual normal problems For Big groups Of People!

00:31:01: And..I don't Think that right wing parties have good answers on that, and at some point people are going to realize that.

00:31:10: Has the political mainstream in Germany yet to comment this trend we're talking about?

00:31:17: This huge shift of young white men into more progressive views?

00:31:23: Yeah I haven't heard much from it so far.

00:31:26: no all comments have been quite general.

00:31:33: as a whole

00:31:35: My sense has been that there is something to learn.

00:31:39: And if I were an advisor to a centrist German political party, I would actually point this and say maybe some real hard research needs abandoning this entire demographic of young men to the far right, but saying hey there are concrete things you might be able to do.

00:31:59: To make them shift not in just small numbers ,but in huge large numbers...to some of the more centrist parties.

00:32:07: and I think you're right.

00:32:08: it has to do with issues like what the students in France are complaining about.

00:32:12: we feel that there no opportunities for us.

00:32:15: have a stable career Right.

00:32:18: We just don't see a positive economic future no matter how hard we work, but we'll see about that.

00:32:25: I think it ought to be in the news and then in the discussion going forward.

00:32:29: speaking of affordability That was The number one issue for Americans In this election.

00:32:37: But still as i'm looking at sort of the massive swings?

00:32:46: Sure.

00:32:46: Well,

00:32:46: I mean how do we get to such a huge shift from one another?

00:32:54: And i just want to give a couple of stats about Texas.

00:32:57: and it's just so the audience in you and me can think About How You Achieve Such A Huge Swing Which I Think We See In All These States.

00:33:06: That Swung In fact The Entire Country Of America.

00:33:09: Every Demographic Group Went To The Progressive Side By

00:33:12: A Lot.

00:33:13: But Texas

00:33:14: in two thousand twenty four trump won texas by fourteen points.

00:33:19: fifty six percent to trump.

00:33:22: forty-two percent to harris wow and two thousand thirty six talerico one buy twelve points uh... fifty five to forty three.

00:33:31: so that's a twenty six point swing which is like crazy.

00:33:34: it wasn't just the young man as i said Hispanics changed by twenty eight percent, black men by sixteen percent and the typical Trump voter.

00:33:47: The white non-college voter even plus fourteen percent.

00:33:52: so I mean i just think it's fascinating.

00:33:55: you can't get a twenty five point swing based on Sort of an accumulation and a number of things.

00:34:06: Yes, people are unhappy about the economy And that gives us one or two point swings.

00:34:12: Latinos were angry about immigration Or the heavy-handed immigration

00:34:16: enforcement.

00:34:17: That's one.

00:34:17: or to points.

00:34:19: we're still like twenty points away from figuring this out.

00:34:22: so then you're like oh you know, independence changed their minds.

00:34:26: Okay?

00:34:26: Maybe three or four percent of independents again.

00:34:29: so we're at sixteen percent.

00:34:30: So there's got to be another reason that did it.

00:34:33: and then people are like oh candidate strength.

00:34:36: right I don't know if he paid attention till some of these Republican candidates who were very bad Like Ken Paxton You know adulterer impeached by his own party in Texas.

00:34:48: Vivek Ramaswamy Who was heavily criticized for a terrible campaign ad.

00:34:53: But then again, you get to this point of Trump's general and favorability.

00:34:58: It is just a whole list of things that you add up to equal the twenty-six points swing.

00:35:03: I don't think we can explain it through one decisive shift in one demographic group or issue.

00:35:10: Oh yeah sure.

00:35:12: So what do you think as we go into future?

00:35:15: What do you thing can convince young German men That votes for the AFD are not The right way to go forward.

00:35:24: Well, if I had the perfect answer for that... ...I would probably not be a drillist anymore but very well-paid advisor somewhere.

00:35:35: But what i generally think is That Not only with regards To young men but too pretty much any demographic What the progressive side certainly needs to do Is Offer these solutions on the problems that people actually have.

00:35:53: and I would say one example was The election here in Berlin.

00:35:58: In September, the regional election because the leftist party came out as number-one into with a much bigger margin than anyone expected And it looks like it's gonna be a progressive coalition of the Leftist Party the Green Party and the Social Democrats.

00:36:16: and the Number One issue that everybody talked about during the whole campaign was housing because.

00:36:24: The rent in Berlin is super expensive and has been rising unbelievably for years now, so if somebody comes along says this my solution to those people will actually listen to them.

00:36:38: you know Same with other problems.

00:36:41: Like you mentioned, young people having difficulties finding a job or issues of education like schools falling apart and stuff that I think is the way to go?

00:36:54: And then... You obviously have to think about how you communicate And that can take on a lot of different forms.

00:37:05: I mean, we've mentioned Talerico several times now and he doesn't come across as this super hard left-wing person you know?

00:37:17: He's like the super average looking nice young man with his Christian background all those things That can be a way to appeal to certain group of voters and then maybe in different place you need someone who is more obviously on the lefty side, things like that.

00:37:39: The way you communicate this message can differ but I think it's probably going to one.

00:37:46: these are my solutions for your actual problems.

00:37:50: Yeah i totally agree.

00:37:52: Taylor Rico is an interesting case.

00:37:54: Hamilton as well, who also a huge upset win in Kansas and he's the head of a megachurch.

00:38:03: Oh wow!

00:38:04: Right?

00:38:05: So pastor of a mega church.

00:38:07: but the important point about that what we saw was people have been arguing this for a long time.

00:38:14: People on the center left or to the left need to reclaim Christianity or religion the Christian religion, anti-cruelty message.

00:38:23: And they've done that and found candidates.

00:38:26: we talk about candidate quality.

00:38:29: a candidate who is religious has legitimate religious credentials speaks to people in the heartland of United States.

00:38:36: They just do.

00:38:38: if you can find good candidate then he or she is speaking for them.

00:38:42: it might be in a religious way too.

00:38:45: That's an interesting point because over here I think church attachment isn't as big or strong, important in the

00:38:56: U.S.,

00:38:57: but Catholic and Protestant Church have criticized government politics several times since Matt took office especially with migration because they say It's love thy neighbor, it's not like turn someone away who is in need.

00:39:19: And also with regards to climate change you know?

00:39:23: You have to protect the creation and so on... So that an interesting point!

00:39:29: Yeah, there's a religious way or explanation of this victory.

00:39:34: The other interesting thing you said was about the big cities.

00:39:37: so what we see now is Los Angeles—this just happened I think late last night—Democratic Socialist beat the normal centrist Democrat in The Mayor's Race In Los Angeles.

00:39:49: Oh, interesting!

00:39:50: Okay...

00:39:50: Yeah so it means that the mayor of New York Mamdani and the new mayor of Los Angeles are Democratic socialists.

00:39:58: So you know I think what the democratic party realized in the United States is in certain places like big cities You can afford to run a hard left Yeah.

00:40:08: Candidate, socialist candidate and they could win.

00:40:13: but you don't want to run that person like Mamdani cannot win in Kansas or Texas?

00:40:17: Probably not.

00:40:18: It's sort of like realizing that was really important.

00:40:21: And again I don't know if there is anything for the centrist parties In Germany To take from

00:40:25: this.

00:40:26: Like i dont see a candidate coming out Of the Seideu Who Is Really Hip For Berlin?

00:40:32: Probably Not No.

00:40:37: What similarities do you see between the left and control of Berlin, say Mamdani?

00:40:43: Yeah,

00:40:45: I mean those comparisons have been drawn here in the press a lot especially because The leading candidate who is supposed to now become mayor.

00:40:55: Her name is Elif Ehralp.

00:40:57: her parents immigrated from Turkey So she has this kind of migration background also And so there were a lot of comparisons drawn between like their similar Kind of upbringing and experiences.

00:41:11: and now they're politics as well.

00:41:14: And I mean, I know that affordability in Berlin is still something completely different from affordability New York City.

00:41:21: But also the city has made up differently like a demographic as it's different to A lot of people in Berlin don't make very much money.

00:41:30: Wall Street Is not in Berlin Like The German wall street isn't Frankfurt and things like That.

00:41:36: so i think there are similarities and Also interestingly In the way right-wing people are trying to work against them.

00:41:49: You know, the arguments of like oh this is socialism or like this Islamism.

00:41:55: I don't know all those things.

00:41:57: that's also very similar.

00:41:59: interestingly they're trying the same route there.

00:42:02: Well

00:42:03: They Are Called Dylinka

00:42:09: On the

00:42:09: nose.

00:42:10: Okay, just maybe two final issues here before we close Money and politics something Germans can't quite understand.

00:42:20: but I think it's important Just to go through how expensive there is more money spent on this election than in the presidential election.

00:42:30: Oh?

00:42:31: Well over eleven billion dollars were spent on political ads.

00:42:36: Elon Musk alone spent four hundred million, four hundred plus million according to the New York Times.

00:42:43: In Texas alone which?

00:42:44: and he spent all this money on Paxton, Paxton the candidate who lost to Tala Frico three hundred billion alone a lot of money.

00:42:54: Republican spent a total of four hundred twelve million.

00:42:58: in Texas negative Paxton lost.

00:43:02: they're saying that altogether.

00:43:04: The Texas Senate race combined was eight hundred million dollars in ad spending.

00:43:11: Michael Bloomberg spent a hundred million on Democrats according to NPR, so like I mean we're talking that In order to get elected people are and again We should be careful by saying this we focus on the big donors But money is part of politics And someone like Abdul El Sayed who won Michigan the Democratic candidate, got lots and lots of money.

00:43:36: Millions in millions not hundreds of millions but from people donating five dollars ten dollars a hundred dollars which is a tradition in the US.

00:43:44: yeah.

00:43:44: But what do Germans in general make up?

00:43:46: how much money?

00:43:47: there's politics?

00:43:50: It's insane to us seriously like because I mean just these sums themselves are crazy.

00:44:00: And it's also the way that parties and politics is finance.

00:44:05: It just works super differently in the US.

00:44:08: end here, like to say one example TV stations have two air party ads over here.

00:44:21: they have to send them then run a certain number of times.

00:44:25: you don't buy airtime.

00:44:28: That's a huge difference.

00:44:29: And also, parties who are in parliament get money from the government according to how big they are and so many votes they got.

00:44:40: and stuff like just financing is very different.

00:44:43: I mean it does happen that somebody gives The term is a very big number of, uh... A very big sum of money to-to a party.

00:44:58: But it's nowhere near those numbers that you just mentioned.

00:45:04: and also You can only really donate To a party not to a single person.

00:45:09: That doesn't work either.

00:45:12: And yeah, I read a quote from one of the leaders of The Green Party, Franziska Brandner that I found interesting because she said.

00:45:21: The midterm results are stop sign against Trump and his billionaires.

00:45:28: so it's... That's the way that has been mentioned over here like especially Elon Musk.

00:45:34: everybody knows Elon musk right?

00:45:41: sort of similar results to the Trump statistics that you mentioned in the beginning.

00:45:46: So yeah, people are like yes!

00:45:50: He got hit... You know?

00:45:52: Well

00:45:52: it wasn't such a huge hit to his finances.

00:45:56: I think

00:45:56: That is true.

00:45:57: Worth it.

00:45:58: I heard

00:45:58: on The New York Times podcast they said Four hundred million dollars to Elon Musk is like the average American donating a hundred dollars.

00:46:09: Oh, wow political campaign on the average income of it The average american family.

00:46:13: so not all that.

00:46:15: interestingly enough he lost more money in the stock market crash yesterday.

00:46:20: He last like seventy three billion and value.

00:46:22: oops.

00:46:24: So there you go.

00:46:26: an interesting point here though about money politics.

00:46:28: several states including Montana passed a local state constitutional amendment to forbid any company who does any business with the State of Montana from spending any money on politics in the State.

00:46:43: Oh,

00:46:43: interesting!

00:46:45: And so sort of the long history of this—the Supreme Court said several years ago that money is equal to freedom of speech?

00:46:55: So that opened the doors for all sorts of money going into politics.

00:46:58: and but states are figuring out well, we can't go against The supreme court ruling.

00:47:03: But in our state.

00:47:05: maybe We can prevent money in politics by having a penalty saying you know if you want to do business In Our State You Can't Spend Money.

00:47:13: so I think three or four states had that pass and they passed overwhelmingly.

00:47:18: The people of America do not want money in politics, but they can't overrule the Supreme Court decision or the billionaires who are spending their money on it.

00:47:27: so this is a way is more states putting state constitutional amendments on the ballot saying we need to figure out a way of removing money from our State politics even though We can't necessarily remove it from federal politics.

00:47:45: So that's A point for the little guy.

00:47:50: Maybe will just end by talking about.

00:47:53: you know You know, American politics the greatest show on earth.

00:47:58: One story ends and everyone's already talking about two thousand twenty-eight.

00:48:03: we started to talk about two hundred

00:48:05: twenty eight.

00:48:06: yeah.

00:48:06: so what are your thoughts?

00:48:11: I don't now i mean pretty interesting, especially on the democratic side.

00:48:19: Like what are they going to take away from this?

00:48:21: And who were they gonna build up to run?

00:48:25: I mean we thought... We just talked about this thing that you have to appeal to people differently in different places and Who is gonna be the person who can appeal To most people everywhere.

00:48:37: You know That's-that's Gonna Be Tough.

00:48:40: And it's also going to be interesting on the Republican side, because the question is.

00:48:47: Is somebody gonna be like I love Trump now vote for me?

00:48:52: Or is the person gonna be Like i hate trump.

00:48:55: now vote from you right and I read an interview.

00:49:00: I forgot with whom.

00:49:01: but Even if you want to run on like a I'm beyond Trump platform, You can't start doing that too early because then he's gonna be angry and he's going to sabotage everything.

00:49:15: The Angry Duck

00:49:17: comes back.

00:49:19: Exactly!

00:49:20: Ducks Can Bite.

00:49:22: So yeah but i cant make any prognosis.

00:49:28: what about you?

00:49:30: Personally, I don't think a California Democrat ought to run for president.

00:49:34: Or if he or she does it could be Harris or Newsom and Mike.

00:49:39: again as you said California Democrats do not have universal appeal in the United States.

00:49:44: they're part of The bad Democratic brand.

00:49:46: right.

00:49:47: who knows what will happen there regarding the Republicans?

00:49:50: It's.

00:49:51: it'll be interesting to see how different candidates choose flee the sinking ship of the MAGA movement.

00:50:01: Right

00:50:02: And we've sort-of seen this already in the past couple days, heads are going to roll you know.

00:50:08: coming.

00:50:09: maybe on Monday We might see an impeachment of the Department of Defense Secretary Hagseth

00:50:15: right

00:50:16: and then I will see.

00:50:18: And there will be a staunch sort of ultra maga group in the Senate and then the House.

00:50:23: But I don't know if any of them we'll be running for president either,

00:50:26: right?

00:50:27: Yeah

00:50:27: so We shall wait and see.

00:50:30: Two years is still a long time you know especially with this US President.

00:50:36: You never know...we

00:50:37: never know.

00:50:38: Okay Christina Neuhaus thank you so much for joining me from Berlin.

00:50:42: Thank you!

00:50:43: This was fun!

00:50:44: Schönes Wochenende Tschüss!

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